Wheat prices are increasingly stable despite adverse weather and tense political situation
The record wheat production in 2013 increased the supply needed for the world and helped push international wheat prices down sharply lower than in 2012. However, by the third week of February, wheat prices Exports have started to grow due to concerns about the effects of a prolonged drought in major wheat growing regions in the United States and escalating tensions in the Black Sea region. Even so, international wheat prices lost momentum in April as the rains came, erasing concerns in the market. Besides, wheat exports from the Black Sea are not affected by the territorial issues between Ukraine and Russia.
Similarly, on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT) , futures wheat export transactions to neighboring regions have rebounded in recent months thanks to stable weather and political conditions. However, in April, the optimistic outlook for global wheat production in 2014 depressed the price of wheat for September delivery and the average price decreased slightly year-on-year. Given the prospect of ample supplies for coarse grains, low-quality feed wheats are unlikely to increase in price. Meanwhile, the price of high-quality wheat (protein) according to the Kansas Exchange (KCBT) is likely to remain stable amid tight supply.
World wheat trade in the 2014/15 season did not change much compared to the 2013/14 season
The growing demand for wheat imports in the Asia region was an important contributor to keeping world wheat trade high in the 2014/15 season. Total imports in Asia were 74 million tons, down only slightly from the peak of the 2013/14 season; in which the largest decrease is China . However, wheat imports from other countries in the region are likely to remain the same, or even surpass, the 2013/14 forecast.
|The amount of wheat imported by the Islamic Republic of Iran remains high, especially the easing of economic sanctions will create favorable conditions for trade transactions. Strong domestic demand for wheat also helped stimulate increased imports in Indonesia . As a country that cannot produce wheat, the growing demand for wheat products has made a traditionally rice-consuming country like Indonesia a major importer of wheat. third in the world after Egypt and China. In the Arab Republic of Syria , wheat imports will increase compared to 2013 based on predictions of another below average harvest as the country faces severe uncertainties due to the conflict is going on.|
In Africa, total wheat imports in the 2014/15 season are forecast to reach 40 million tonnes, almost unchanged from 2013/14. Among the countries in North Africa, Egypt is expected to maintain wheat imports at 10.5 million tonnes, roughly the same as the 2013/14 crop but down 1 million tonnes from the previous season record. 2011/12 case. Although the Egyptian government has increased the amount purchased from farmers in 2014 to 4.25 million tons (about 500,000 tons higher than in 2013), there is no sign that imports will decrease in the season. crop 2014/15 due to high wheat demand while domestic production stagnated.
While the import situation in Tunisia expected to decrease by 400 thousand tons due to the recovery of domestic production, in contrast in Morocco with weak production increased wheat imports to 1 million tons. Wheat imports in other countries in Africa are forecast to remain stable. In Nigeria , this is estimated at 4.2 million tons, equivalent to the 2013/14 crop level. Although the government has announced a plan to use 75,000 hectares for wheat cultivation, domestic production is still very small. In South Africa , domestic wheat prices have risen in recent months, partly due to a weakening currency, and partly due to a low winter harvest that has resulted in imports reaching a high, around $1,500. 8 million tons in the 2014/15 season.
In the euro area , wheat imports for the 2014/15 season are forecast to reach 8.7 million tons, up nearly 2 million tons from the previous season, mainly from EU countries. Although wheat harvest is as high as in 2013/14, it will have to make up for the loss of other coarse grains, namely barley. In Latin America and the Caribbean , total wheat imports for the 2014/15 season will be around 21 million tons, down nearly 2 million tons from the previous year. The main reason for this decline was the strong increase in domestic production in Brazil and Mexico .
In terms of exports, fluctuations in the 2013/14 season with strong increases in all major wheat exporting countries except Argentina and Australia make the forecast for wheat exports for the season 2014/15 faced many difficulties. Political tensions in the Black Sea region made the 2014 wheat trade even more volatile. According to the latest FAO report, while EU wheat exports for the 2014/15 season may fall by 3.5 million tons compared with the previous year, in Argentina and Australia exports will increase again. get a raise. Wheat exports from the EU in the 2013/14 season are estimated to reach a record high of 29 million tonnes, up 34% from the previous season.
In Canada , despite forecasts of a decline in domestic production , exports in 2014 remained at 2013 levels due to ample wheat stocks . The upbeat production outlook in Kazakhstan is likely to help keep the Commonwealth of Independent States country’s wheat exports at around the same level as the 2013/14 season.
Wheat exports from Ukraine will also remain at the level of the previous year, especially in the event that the EU’s 2014/15 crop imports increase as expected. Russian wheat exports may decline slightly, but shipments from the United States have remained stable thanks to the large trade with Brazil. Wheat exports from the United States to Brazil in 2013 reached their highest level in 30 years, due to declines in exports from Argentina and Brazil. India is also forecast to have a large export supply based on expectations of a good crop in the country. However, Turkey ‘s domestic wheat production tends to decline sharply.
According to VIETRADE