VIETRADE – Global wheat production fell slightly in 2014 – According to the latest projections of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global wheat production in 2014 will reach 702 million tons, a decrease. 13.4 million tons (or 1.9%) compared to 2013 but still the second largest crop ever. This is mainly due to Canada , which is forecast to have a shrinking acreage due to falling domestic wheat prices and yields returning to average levels after hitting a record high in 2013.
World wheat market overview
| 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | % change in season 2014/15 vs. 2013/14 | |
| Estimate | Forecast | |||
| Unit: Million tons | ||||
| BALANCE OF THE WORLD | 659.7 | 715.1 | 701.7 | -1.9 |
| Quantity | 140.8 | 150.5 | 149.5 | -0.7 |
| Commercial1 | 685.6 | 687.9 | 699.2 | 1.6 |
| Total Consumption | 474.4 | 480.1 | 485.4 | 1.1 |
| Food | 132.1 | 128.6 | 133.4 | 3.7 |
| Breed | 79.0 | 79.1 | 80.5 | 1.8 |
| Another purpose | 156.9 | 177.5 | 179.5 | 1.1 |
| Reserved | 659.7 | 715.1 | 701.7 | -1.9 |
| SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS | ||||
| Consumption per capita | ||||
| World (kg/year) | 67.1 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 0 |
| Group of low-income countries (kg/year) | 46.1 | 46.1 | 46.1 | 0 |
| Proportion of reserves for consumption (%) | 22.8 | 25.4 | 25.2 | |
| Ratio of ending stocks of major exporting countries to total consumption 2 (%) | 14.1 | 15.3 | 14.2 | |
| FAO RICE PRICE INDEX2 | 2012 | two thousand and thirteen | 2014 | % change in season 2014/15 vs. 2013/14 |
| (2002-2004=100) | January – April | |||
| 204 | 194 | 183 | -11.7 | |
1. Trade: is understood as export data from July to June of that crop year.
2. Major exporters include: Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
3. Compiled from International Grains Council (IGC) data (wheat index)
In the United States , despite continued drought in the southern and central regions, wheat is still in the early stages of growth; At the same time, the right amount of rain during the growing period can significantly prevent the decline in crop yield. FAO forecasts total US wheat production in 2014 will reach 57 million tons.
The EU, the world’s largest wheat area, experienced unseasonably warm weather during the winter crop. However, with the arrival of spring, below-average rainfall has impacted vegetation conditions in several key areas, including the Benelux countries, the northern part of the Balkan peninsula, the northern part of the Balkans. Germany and important agricultural regions of Central Europe. Therefore, sufficient rainfall is a necessary condition for the affected areas to avoid loss of revenue for the remainder of the crop. Meanwhile, the winter crop in Spain, Italy and the south of the Balkan peninsula was recorded as positive thanks to favorable rainfall. The region’s total wheat production in 2014 is expected to reach 143.7 million tons, equivalent to 2013’s production level.
Wheat production by major producing countries*
| 2012 | 2013 Estimate | 2014 Forecast | Change in 2014 compared to 2013 | |
| Million tons | % | |||
| EU | 132.3 | 143.2 | 143.7 | 0.3 |
| China | 120.8 | 122.2 | 122.0 | -0.2 |
| India | 94.9 | 93.5 | 96.0 | 2.7 |
| USA | 61.7 | 58.0 | 57.0 | -1.7 |
| that | 37.7 | 52.1 | 51.0 | -2.1 |
| Canada | 27.2 | 37.5 | 29.3 | -21.9 |
| Australia | 22.5 | 27.0 | 24.8 | -8.1 |
| Pakistan | 23.5 | 24.2 | 25.4 | 5.0 |
| Turkey | 20.1 | 22.0 | 19.7 | -10.5 |
| Ukraine | 15.8 | 21.5 | 19.0 | -11.6 |
| Iran | 13.8 | 14.0 | 13.5 | -3.6 |
| Kazakhstan | 9.8 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 2.1 |
| Argentina | 8.2 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 14.1 |
| Egypt | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 2.3 |
| Uzbekistan | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.7 | -2.9 |
| Other countries | 55.9 | 60.5 | 59.3 | -2.0 |
| Total world | 659.7 | 715.1 | 701.7 | -1.9 |
* Countries are listed based on position in total world wheat production (average numbers from 2012-2014)
Similarly, in the CIS region , unusually high temperatures coupled with dry weather have reduced soil moisture, leading to faster-than-normal growth of wheat. In Russia , thanks to the wet weather conditions in September, total wheat production in 2014 is expected to increase as the spring crop is expected to make up for the shortfall in the winter crop, estimated at 51 million tons, 2% decrease compared to 2013. Wheat harvest in Ukraine is also expected to be lower than 2013, down 12% to 19 million tons. The reason for this expected decline is a 6% reduction in wheat acreage due to a shift to more profitable spring crops, as well as a forecast 6% decline in production. quantity.
In Asia , the 2014 wheat harvest in the East Asia sub-region is well underway and prospects remain extremely optimistic in key regions thanks to relatively favorable weather conditions. In China , after the dry spells that lasted throughout March, the rains that came in April helped to improve the planting situation. The latest FAO report shows that the total wheat production in 2014 (both winter and spring crops) was about 122 million tons, equivalent to last year’s production. This is possible thanks to government support programs, including direct payments to farmers, reduced purchase prices, subsidies for seeds, machinery and other inputs, thereby contributing to an increase in wheat production in 2014. In India, the latest forecast for winter (Rabi) production in 2014 is 96 million tons, thanks to an expansion of planted area by 6% and favorable rainfall during the season. Producers also benefit from sufficient irrigation water, fertilizers and other inputs. In Pakistan , the latest official report forecasts total wheat production in 2014 will reach a record 25.4 million tons, mainly thanks to an increase in planted area, favorable rainfall. and enough water for irrigation and fertilizer. In the Near East, in Turkey , a dry autumn coupled with a freezing in early April resulted in a total 2014 wheat production decrease of 11% compared to 2013, estimated at 19.7 million tons. .
The outlook for wheat production is very optimistic in North Africa, an area with favorable rainfall, where Algeria and Tunisia are expected to achieve outstanding yields . However, in Morocco , a dry winter in the south makes wheat production in 2014 forecast to return to average, down 5 million tons or 30% compared to 2013.
In the Southern Hemisphere , the planting of large quantities of wheat for the winter season is about to begin in April-May in Australia. Some early forecasts suggest that wheat production will return to average levels after last year’s record high. In South America , wheat sowing is usually started from May to September. The region’s production in 2014 is forecast to recover, reaching 21.7 million tons, up nearly 14% from last year. , This growth mainly comes from Argentina and Brazil . In Central America and the Caribbean , Mexico is the main wheat growing region, with production expected to increase by nearly 6% in 2014/15 to 3.6 million tons.
